Now that opensecrets.org had pretty much fully updated the fundraising figures, I can better judge which districts and Democratic candidates are competitive.
This is broken down into four categories with my rankings at the end.
Vs. Long time Republican incumbents (named in bracket with 2014 election results) ranked by my prediction of competitiveness
1.Josh Gottheimer, New Jersey 5 (E. Scott Garrett 55.4-44.3)
2.Morgan Carroll, Colorado 6 (Mike Coffman, 51.9-43.0)
3.Gretchen Driskell, Michigan 7 (Tim Walberg, 53.5-41.2)
4.Michael Eggman, California 10 (Jeff Denham, 56.1-43.9)
5.Bryan Caforio, California 25 (Steve Knight, No Democratic opponent in 2014)
6.Emilio Huerta, California 21 (David Valadao, 57.8-42.2)
7.Colleen Deacon, New York 24 (John Katko, 59.5-40.3)
8.Francis Person, South Carolina 5 (Mick Mulvaney, 58.9-41.1)
9.Stephanie Murphy, Florida 7 (John Mica, Redistricted)
10.Jay Sidie, Kansas 3 (Kevin Yoder, 60.0-40.0)
11.Steve Lindbeck, Alaska (Don Young 51.0-41.0)
12.Mike Parrish, Pennsylvania 6 (Ryan Costello, 56.3-43.7)
13.Denise Juneau, Montana (Ryan Zinke, 55.4-40.4)
14.Nancy Jo Kemper, Kentucky 6 (Andy Barr, 60.0-40.0)
15.Erin McClelland, Pennsylvania 12 (Keith Rothfus, 59.3-40.7)
Vs Republican Freshmen
1.Charlie Crist, Florida 13 (Dave Jolly (First elected in Special Election in 2014), redistricted)
2.Brad Schneider, Illinois 10 (Bob Dold, 51.3-48.7
3.Pete Gallego, Texas 23 (Will Hurd, 49.8-47.7
4. Monica Vernon, Iowa 1 (Rod Blum, 51.1-48.8
5.Carol Shea-Porter, New Hampshire 1 (Frank Guinta (facing competitive primary challenge from Rick Ashooh, bless you) 51.7-48.1
6.Matt Heinz, Arizona 2, (Martha McSally, 50.0-49.9
7.Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo, Florida 26, (Carlos Curbelo, 51.5-48.5
8.Anna Throne-Holst, New York 1 (Lee Zeldin, 54.4-45.5
9.Ruben Kihuen, Nevada 4 (Cresent Hardy, 48.5-45.8
10.Jim Mowrer, Iowa, 3 (David Young, 52.8-42.2)
11.Doug Owens, Utah 4 (Mia Love, 50.9-45.8
12.Emily Cain, Maine 2 (Bruce Poliquin, 47.0-41.8
13.Lu Ann Bennett, Virginia 10 (Barbara Comstock, 56.6-40.4)
14.Charles John Baricevic, Illinois 12 (Mike Bost, 52.5-41.9
15.Mike Derrick, New York 21, (Elise Stefanic, 55.1-33.8
16.Mark Hunt, West Virginia 2, (Alex Mooney, 47.1-43.9
Republican Open Seats
1.Val Demings or Bob Poe, Florida 10
2.Donald McEchin Virginia 4
3.Kim Myers, New York 22
4.Lon Johnson, Michigan 1
5.Jacky Rosen, Nevada 3
6.Angie Craig, Minnesota 2
7.Steve Santarsiero, Pennsylvania 8
8.Jane Dittmer, Virginia 5
9.Shelli Yoder, Indiana 9
10.Zephyr Teachout, New York 19
11.Christina Hartman, Pennsylvania 16
12.Tom Nelson, Wisconsin 8
13.Ryan Greene, Wyoming (Only competitive if Liz Cheney wins the Republican nomination)
14.Bruce Davis, North Carolina 13 (Only competitive because the Republican nominee isn't much of a fundraiser either)
Higher profile competitive Democrats in districts won by the Republicans by over 20% in 2014.
Elise Stefanic won in New York 21 by 21.3% in 2014, but she only received 55.1% of the vote, so I consider that result unique.
1.Douglas Applegate, California 49 (Darrell Issa, 60.2-39.8
2.John Plumb, New York 23 (Tom Reed, 61.7-38.3)
3.Gail Schwatz, Colorado 3 (Scott Tipton, 58.0-35.7)
4.Terri Bonoff, Minnesota 3 (Erik Paulsen, 62.1-37.8
5.Lynn Coleman, Indiana 2 (Jackie Walorski, 58.9-38.3)
6.Bill Otto, Missouri 2 (Ann Wagner, 64.1-32.6)
7.Scott Furhman, Florida 27 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Redistricted? If not, I don't think this district is competitive)
Districts added since last list after March financial donations filing: 1.New York 24, 2.South Carolina 5, 3.Pennsylvania 6, 4.Kentucky 6, 5.Pennsylvania 12, 6.New York 21, 7.Indiana 5, 8.Missouri 2, 9.Florida 27
Names/Districts removed since last list: 1.Frank Accavitti, Michigan 10, open seat, 2.Joel Lewis, Wisconsin 8 (Sean Duffy, Republican Incumbent)
My ranking, not including the 7 who are running in districts won by the Republican incumbent in 2014 by more than 20%, with the Elise Stefanik exception.
1.Val Demings or Bob Poe. Florida redistricting made this into a safe Democratic district. A ‘some dude’ is running for the Republicans.
2.Donald McEchin. Virginia redistricting has made this into a strongly leaning Democratic district but McEchin is facing a potentially competitive Republican County Sheriff challenger.
3.Charlie Crist. Florida redisticting has made this into a leaning Democratic competitive district. Crist is popular but so is the ‘incumbent’ Republican David Jolly. Opensecrets.org still lists Crist’s fundraising at $0.
4.Brad Schneider. Schneider was the incumbent narrowly defeated in this Illinois district in 2014.
5.Pete Gallego. Gallego was the incumbent narrowly defeated in this Texas district in 2014.
6.Kim Myers. A New York district that seems to elect moderate to liberal Republicans. The Republicans nominated an arch conservative in this open now open seat while Myers is a former County Councilor, small business owner and heiress to a fortune.
7.Monica Vernon. Leaning Democratic Iowa district that narrowly elected a Republican in the 2014 wave election. Monica Vernon seems to be a strong candidate
8.Josh Gottheimer. E. Scott Garrett is the long time Republican Representative who has a history of saying and doing stupid things. Gottheimer has badly out-raised him.
9.Carole Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter was the incumbent narrowly defeated in this New Hampshire district in both 2010 and 2014. The Republican incumbent has had ethical problems and is facing a competitive primary. Shea-Porter is hurt by the presence of Shawn O’Connor on the ballot, a former Democrat and wealthy tutoring company owner who quit the Democratic Party complaining about the party unfairly backing Shea-Porter over remaining neutral.
10.Lon Johnson. Open Republican seat that comprises the Michigan Peninsula. Former Democratic district with a lot of ‘working class’ voters that has slowly shifted Republican. Northern Midwestern ‘working class’ voters seem to be more favorable to Democrats possibly due to the more powerful union presence there, but Trump’s candidacy may help the eventual Republican nominee here. Johnson has done very well in fundraising.
11.Jacky Rosen. Open Nevada district. Rosen has done well in fundraising likely due to the support she has from Senator Harry Reid. Her Republican opponent is a wealthy businessman who has run multiple times and doesn’t seem to be well known.
12.Angie Craig. Open Minnesota district. Angie Craig has badly out fundraised the multiple slate of Republican Primary candidates.
13.Matt Heinz. Arizona district once held by Gabrielle Giffords. This district had the closest race in 2014.
14.Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo. Joe Garcia was the incumbent who narrowly lost this Florida district in 2014 after ethics concern rose around him. He was personally cleared but at least one of his staffers faced some legal issues. Annette Taddeo is a frequent candidate but her strong fundraising totals suggest she might have figured out how to campaign.
15.Anna Throne-Holst. New York district won by a Republican over a Democratic incumbent in 2014. The Republican incumbent has apparently said/done at least a couple stupid things.
16.Steve Santarsiero. Open Pennsylvania district. Santarsiero is a State Representative facing the brother of the outgoing Republican Representative and has outraised him by nearly 2-1.
17.Jane Dittmer. Open Virginia based district. Dittmer is the Chair of a County Board and has outraised her Republican opponent, but fundraising hasn’t been great for either.
18.Ruben Kihuen. Nevada district that was a surprise pick-up for the Republicans in 2014.
19.Morgan Carroll. Colorado district that the Democrats have targeted for a number of cycles.
20.Gretchen Driskell. MIchigan district the Democrats seem to have targeted on and off for a number of cycles. The fundraising is strong in her.
21.Jim Mowrer. Iowa district held by a freshman Republican. Mowrer is an Iraq War Veteran who ran in the district held by Steve King in 2014.
22.Doug Owens. Owens was the 2014 nominee in this Utah district held by the popular retiring Democrat Matheson. Owens lost by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2014 to a supposedly star Republican. My guess is that if Republicans don’t turn out to vote in Utah due to Trump Owens will win, but if Republicans turn out to vote most likely for Gary Johnson, the Republican will win.
23.Emily Cain. Emily Cain was the 2014 nominee in this Maine district held by the Democrat, Michael Michaud who gave up the seat to run for Governor. This is the more Republican district in Maine. Cain ran a poor race against a well known Republican. She received only 42% of the vote but lost by only around 5% due to a third party candidate. But, apparently the third party (or independent) candidate was even more conservative than the Republican. Still, the national and state Democrats think highly of Cain and backed her for a rematch.
24.Lu Ann Bennett. This Virginia district is regarded as a swing district and is held by a Republican freshman.
25.Shelli Yoder. This Indiana district is an open seat race as the popular outgoing Republican incumbent is their nominee for the open U.S Senate race. The Republican nominee here is a very wealthy mysterious property developer who moved to the state seemingly just to run for the House. The conventional wisdom is that this is a safe Republican district but Yoder was the Democratic nominee in 2012 and lost to Young only 55-45. (Though Young probably wasn’t as popular back then in the district.)
26.Charles John Baricevic. This Illinois Democratic leaning district won by the Republicans in the 2014 wave election was given up for lost when no high profile Democrat ran for the nomination, but Baricevic has proven himself to be a credible candidate and relatively strong fundraiser.
27.Zephyr Teachout. Some people will probably hate me for this, but I think Teachout might be too progressive for this upstate New York open district held by an outgoing Republican. Her Republican opponent is popular in this area as a former State Assembly minority leader who was the Republican nominee for Governor in 2006 (though he lost badly to Eliot Spitzer.)
28.Christina Hartman. This is the other open Pennsylvania district. It was actually more competitive in 2014 than the district Santarsiero is running in, but Hartman’s fundraising is lagging behind her Republican opponent, a State Senator named Lloyd Smucker. Unfortunately for the Democrats, with a name like Smucker, he has to be good.
29.Michael Eggman. California district held by a longtime Republican incumbent. The Republican incumbent did better than expected in the ‘Jungle’ California Primary but the convention wisdom here is that with Trump at the top of the tickets and two Democrats running for the open U.S Senate seat, Republican turnout will be very depressed in California.
30.Bryan Carofio. California district held by a longtime Republican incumbent. See above for Republican turnout prediction.
31.Emilio Huerta. California district held by a longtime Republican incumbent. See above for Republican turnout prediction.
32.Colleen Deacon. New York district. I don't think the Democrats have normally targeted this district but Deacon is a potentially strong challenger to the longtime Republican incumbent.
33.Tom Nelson. Open Wisconsin seat. Nelson is a county executive who was the candidate the Democrats hope would run here. Still this district went for the outgoing Republican incumbent by a nearly 2-1 margin in 2014.
34.Mike Derrick. New York district held by Freshman Republican Elise Stefanik, a young former official in the W. Bush Administration who took this former Democratic held district thanks in part to the Republican wave. She was also helped by the presence of a well liked Green Party candidate who is running again but has barely raised any money this cycle.
35.Francis Person. South Carolina district. Person is a former senior longtime aide to Joe Biden. Yes, there are potentially competitive districts in South Carolina as the Republican incumbent won here by less than 60-40% in 2014 and Person has shown he has the connections to be a strong fundraiser.
36.Stephanie Murphy. Florida districted redistricted to be a swing district. The initially favored Democratic candidate was a bank Vice President who proved to be a poor fundraiser. Murphy, who entered the race only about a week before the Florida filing deadline (ask Marco Rubio for the date) is a political science professor with a background in national security issues. We’ll see if she can make this district competitive for the Democrats.
37.Jay Sidie. Kansas district. The Democrats did hold one or two districts in Kansas from 2006-2010 or so, so this isn’t an impossible district for Sidie to win, especially given the extreme unpopularity of the Republican Governor Sam Brownback
38.Steve Lindbeck. Alaska district. If the too long Republican incumbent Don Young says or does something stupid before election day, this could finally be the cycle he loses reelection. If not, Young should be reelected.
39.Mark Hunt. West Virginia district. Only really potentially competitive because the Republican freshman is still having to deal somewhat with his recently moving from Maryland.
40.Mike Parrish. Pennsylvania district the Democrats have targeted for a number of cycles but seem to keep winding up with disapointing candidates. Parrish is a former Republican and Army Reserve Colonel with a succesful business background as well, but national and state Democrats wrote him off when his fundraising also showed to be anemic. He has slowly started to pick up in that regard though, and this could be competitive if the national and state Democrats give him a second look.
41.Denise Juneau. Montana district. The Republican incumbent is considered to be popular but he won by a relatively small 15% in the wave Republican 2014 cycle. Juneau is the outgoing State Superintendent of Public Instruction an elected position in Montana and is a good fundraiser. She should maybe be higher on this list.
42.Nancy Jo Kemper. Kentucky district based in Lexington. She should be helped by the very popular Lexington Mayor, Jim Gray, running against Rand Paul for the U.S Senate. She has something of high profile as a senior United Church Minister and as an anti gambling activist. I’m not sure if her anti gambling activism will help or hurt her.
43.Erin McClelland. Pennsylvania district. McClelland was the 2014 Democratic nominee and lost by less than 20%.
44.Ryan Greene. Wyoming district with a retiring incumbent. Will probably only be competitive if Liz Cheney wins the Republican nomination and then it will probably be a top tier target for the Democrats. Greene is a credible candidate as an executive in the family owned resource sector business and previously worked in ‘blue collar’ jobs for the firm.
45.Bruce Davis. North Carolina district that was redistricted. I don’t know if it was made more Democratic leaning or not, but it is an open seat. Davis is a former commissioner of a county with a population of more than 300,000, but his fundraising is very poor. I would suggest to national Democrats though that if this district was not made less Democratic in the redistricting that they give Davis a look. I don’t know much about his Republican opponent, but I know that he’s the owner of a gun range, so he could be a gun rights extremist. His fundraising also hasn’t been great.